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Credit Risk Management & Predictive Analytics
Data driven programs include: Commercial Credit Risk Management, Financial Benchmarking, The Forward View, along with 18 years of actuarial work for consumer and commercial lenders.
Our data sets are structured by geography, industry sector, and company size. This enables you to reference your A/R portfolio against classes of similarly situated businesses, with the accompanying expected credit losses. Add this to your historical reports from credit bureaus for a complete perspective of commercial credit risk.
When evaluating operating risk, our Financial Benchmarking combined with The Forward View provides insights regarding specific regions and industry sectors that is essential to risk mitigation.
Consumer Credit
Consumer Default Probability Program
24 Month Predictive Analytics
CECL Credit Programs
Free CCM Index
CCM Default Probabilities Program
CECL Resources
Understanding CECL
6 steps to CECL
Commercial Credit Model User Guide and FAQ
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Commercial Credit Model User Guide and FAQ
Credit Risk Mgmt begins with Default Probability Data
Our default probability models are based on the actual default rates of 'similarly situated businesses'. This graph shows the default rates of businesses with fewer than 500 employees, by industry sector. The values shown from 2012 through 2024 are actuals. The 2025 values are estimates derived from our CCM. Click on industry sectors below to obtain a clear view of credit risk by sector.
2019 was the last normal year (pre-pandemic). Therefore, we use it as a reference point for you to compare current and projected defaults.
| Industry | 2019 Default Rate | Latest Default Rate |
|---|---|---|
| All Industries | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Construction | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Education | 1.5% | 2% |
| Finance | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Information | 2.9% | 4.2% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| Manufacturing | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Natural Resources | 2% | 2% |
| Professional Services | 3.2% | 3.9% |
| Retail Trade | 3% | 3.2% |
| Transportation | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| Wholesale Trade | 2% | 2.3% |